President Donald Trump has decided to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal also known as Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Meanwhile, Iran has decided to continue with its obligations under the nuclear deal which is supported strongly by Russia and China.
IAEA i.e. International Atomic Energy Agency has confirmed that Iran is complying with its obligations under the nuclear deal. Iran’s missile programme and regional issues that plague the Persian gulf were not a part of the deal.
Details about iran nuclear deal
- The Iranian nuclear deal is a disarmament agreement and not a peace treaty.
- It is not a bilateral agreement but a multilateral agreement signed by P5+1 with Iran i.e. permanent members of UNSC + Germany with Iran.
- It is endorsed by the UNSC through its resolution 2231 of July, 2015. UNSC resolution remains in effect even now. The clauses regarding the use of missiles are a part of the UNSC resolution.
Effect of US withdrawal
- The withdrawal of US would bring back nuclear related sanctions on Iran back on it. This may be applied over a period of three to six months from now.
- They may be unilateral sanctions but they also affect companies and corporations of third party countries who are dealing with Iran.
- This will have a huge impact on oil trade of Iran which exports more than 2.2 million barrel of crude oil a day.
- Now the shale industry of United States would try to fill up the vacuum created by Iran in the oil industry.
- It will create further tensions between Saudi Arabia and Israel against Iran which will have a dominating hand over Iran.
- It may impact the confidence building measures with North Korea which is yet to negotiate the deal with the United States. US credibility to implement the conditions of the deal is severely impacted with the abrogation of this deal.
- US withdrawal would also impact economic interests of many countries such as Europeans who were returning to do business with Iran after lifting up of sanctions in terms of defence contracts.
- US withdrawal would harden the position of radical groups in Iran who were against the deal and professed non-support of US position on the deal. This would have severe security implications on the region.
- India may see a thorough impact on its trade with Iran as trade in US dollars would be severely impacted. Similarly, India’s infrastructural projects namely at Chabahar would face the sword of uncertainty.
We should look for comprehensive impact on the world trade before resorting to speculations that may not come true in the future. It is hoped that all sides would exercise maximum restraint and not escalate into an anarchical West Asia.
Source – VIF India
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